http://razzball.com/fantasy-all-stars-early-00s/

The Fantasy All Stars from 1998-2000.

        

Last week, we identified the greatest rookie seasons of all time.  Continuing the theme to its logical conclusion, we’ll now concern ourselves with the greatest rookie class of all time.  Relying on rookies in fantasy baseball is a risky proposition.  Managers often have youngsters on a shorter leash than veterans, the rookie’s themselves performance can be erratic, and most importantly, it’s just extremely difficult to perform at a high level when one is in their early 20’s.  Experience matters.  Fantasy owners simply can’t count on either playing time or better than average results from rookies.

Our first hurdle is to figure out how to even determine the best rookie class.  Is it more important to have a high volume of fantasy worthy rookies, or is it essential to have at least a rookie or two perform at a high level to vote a specific year #1.  The list below contains the sum of all the FBHOF score’s for fantasy worthy rookies in a given year, ignoring all players who wouldn’t shouldn’t have been given playing time in a standard fantasy league.  In FBHOF terms, only rookies with a score above 0.0 are included.

In 1987 there were a record number of rookies that deserved playing time.  Led by Mark McGwire (11.4 FBHOF Points, 49 HR), a total of 25 rookies would have likely appeared in the average fantasy league.  Benito Santiago (9.5 pts), Matt Nokes (8.9 pts), Kevin Seitzer (8.9 pts), Devon White (8.4), Mike Greenwell (6.2), and Ellis Burks (6.0) all had seasons at least as good as the average fantasy player.

You’ll notice that the 1987 class total score of 94.0 hasn’t been approached in any other season.  Years 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1995, 1999, 2006, and 2007 each had 20 or more fantasy worthy rookies, but none had as many good players as 1987.

On the other hand, 14 players in 1987 are considered to have had, at best, “poor” fantasy seasons.  The sum of the FBHOF score for these 14 players is almost 18 points and skews the overall usefulness of the ’87 Rookie Class.  Said a bit differently, should we award points to rookies that were barely useful to fantasy owners.

An alternative method is to solely look at the average FBHOF score for the fantasy worthy rookies of each year:

By this method 2001 was an incredible year. Though the sheer number of total rookies was the 4^th lowest of the fantasy era, the eligible rookies were excellent. You’ll likely recall that both Ichiro Suzuki (13.3 Pts, .350 AVG, 127 R, 58 S and Albert Pujols (11.6 pts, 37 HR, 130 RBI) made their major league debuts this year, and though not nearly on the same level, catcher Paul LoDuca had a fine rookie season as well:  .320, 71 R, 25 HR, 90.

1981 deserves mention as well.  Fernando Valenzuela (14.7 pts) and Tim Raines (12.9) score higher than Suzuki and Pujols, but the remainder of the rookie class wasn’t nearly as good.  And perhaps as a preview of what class will be named the best, 1987 had the greatest number of total rookies and yet still maintained the third best average score.

And the Winner Is
To try and add a little math to the decision making process, I categorized each possible FBHOF score into a Rookie Class Point system: 

0.0 Points:  Replacement Level FBHOF Scores
0.5 Points:  Poor Scores
1.0 Points:  Decent Scores
1.5 Points:  Average Scores
2.0 Points:  Good Scores
3.0 Points:  Very Good Scores
5.0 Points:  Great Scores

The most important question to answer is deciding if we want to reward players for being replacement level.  A considerable number of rookies do not fare well and fall into either the Replacement Level or Poor categories.  The defining attribute of a replacement level player is that a fantasy owner can drop the player and find a similar commodity in the Free Agent market at any time.  Because of this, no points are awarded.  Similarly, I don’t feel a linear scale makes sense as the better a player performs the more they should be awarded, and this match most fantasy leagues since owners pay a premium for services of the best. Thus, the 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0 scale.

1987 come out on top, though 1984 isn’t far behind.  Not only does ’87 have more qualifying rookies than any other year, they also have more “Good or Better” rookies than any other year.  The top end players of 2001 and 1981 simply do not make up for a weaker overall class.

The worst rookie class in fantasy history was 1996.  Though led by a big name in Derek Jeter, the shortstop was just a bit better then average and everyone one else was downright awful for fantasy purposes.

Below is the list of “good or better” players for each of the top 3 classes.  The complete list of players by class can be found here.

Name (FBHOF Points)

1987
McGwire, Mark (11.4)
Santiago, Benito (9.5)
Nokes, Matt (8.9)
Seitzer, Kevin (8.9)
White, Devon (8.4)
Greenwell, Mike (6.2)
Burks, Ellis (6.0)

1984
Gooden, Dwight (13.7)
Samuel, Juan (11.8)
Davis, Alvin (9.7)
Hershiser, Orel (6.1)
Langston, Mark (5.6)
Gladden, Dan (5.1)

2001
Suzuki, Ichiro (13.3)
Pujols, Albert (11.6)
Lo Duca, Paul (8.0)
Rollins, Jimmy (6.7)
Soriano, Alfonso (6.7)
Oswalt, Roy (5.6)

        

I have put this off long enough. Over the course of the next few days (weeks?) the FBHOF will rank the Top 200 fantasy players of all time, providing summary level commentary for each.

To date all our discussions have been within a particular position.  For instance, we spent a lot of time showing why Albert Pujols is ranked higher than Jeff Bagwell, but we never quite answered the question as to who was better – Pujols or the highest ranked second basemen, Ryne Sandberg.

That ends now.  All positions, including closers and starting pitchers, are hereby ranked in one spot.

Key
[Rank – Player, Position (FBHOF Score / FBHOFPeaKScore)

170 – Mickey Tettleton, C (41.2 / 39.6)
A power hitting catcher that finished in the Top-5 at the position five times.  At his best (over a 4-year period) averaged 30 HR and 87 RBI, though never hit for average.  Famous for his odd batting stance which began with his wrists parallel to home plate.
Best Score:  10.4 in 1991.  Peak Avg:  7.9

169 – Reggie Sanders, OF (41.3 / 38.2)
Was a Top-10 outfielder in 1995 featuring a good batting average, power, and speed but never brought the combination together before or since.  For a dozen years averaged 22 HR and 21 SB with 70+ Runs and RBI.  Would venture to say was rarely drafted early, but almost always ended the season active in most fantasy leagues.
Best Score:  11.7 in 1995.  Peak Avg:  7.6

168 – Jack Clark, 1B (41.3 / 38.9)
While it didn’t cost him a shot at the FBHOF, Clark began his career in the mid 1970’s and became a regular in 1977.  His best season was 1978, thus not counting for the “fantasy era”.  It deserves mention though:  11.6 Pts, .306 AVG, 90 R, 25 HR, 98 RBI, and 15 SB.  He was fantasy worthy until 1993, a stretch of over 15 years.  He is unfortunately most remembered as just a plodding first basemen with 25 HR power.
Best Score:  8.9 in 1982.  Peak Avg:  7.8

167 – Bert Blyleven, SP (41.5 / 40.3)
Would be ranked 81^st and a member of the FBHOF had the 1970’s counted.  In the 1980’s had 4 very good years and 1 great one in 1984:  19 W, 1.13 WHIP, 2.87 ERA, 170 K for a 4^th place ranking among pitchers.  17 of his 22 eligible seasons (from an innings pitched standpoint) were “fantasy worthy”.
Best Score:  10.3 in 1984.  Peak Avg:  8.1

166 – Jermaine Dye, OF (41.5 / 40.3)
Rated this highly in large part due to the strength of his 2006 season of 44 HR, 120 RBI, and .315 batting average.  His home run total was 33% better than his previous high and resulted in an excellent FBHOF score of 11.9.  In 2000 had another very good season with 9.2 FBHOF points, but for the rest of his peak averaged .285 with 28 HR, 87 R, 104 RBI, and 6.4 FBHOF points.  His inconsistency diminished is value considerably:

Best Score:  12.0 in 2006.  Peak Avg:  8.1

165 – Mark Grace, 1B (41.6 / 38.1)
Grace is a bit of a fantasy oddball.  He’s an average and doubles hitter at a power position, yet had many seasons where he was of value to fantasy owners.  He was worthy of a roster spot every year from 1988 through 2001, and had 7 seasons of 5 or more FBHOF points.  With a career high of 9.3 FBHOF points he was never a superstar but his production was reliable, making him a valid option at corner infield or utility for many years.  His peak averages:  .312, 80 R, 12 HR, 86 RBI, 10 SB.
Best Score:  9.3 in 1984.  Peak Avg:  7.6

164 – Tony Phillips, 2B (41.6 / 39.3)
One of the upsides to Phillips is his multi-position eligibility.  Throughout his career he played games at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF and in 13 seasons was eligible at two or more of these.  While the FBHOF takes into consideration positional scarcity, no bonus points are awarded for those playing multiple positions.  It is of some value, especially in head to head leagues, for owners to be able to easily replace players who don’t have a game on a particular day, are sitting, or are injured.   Phillips’ worth was in his ability to everything well, though nothing exceedingly so.  His peak line looks weak:  .283 AVG, 105 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 13 SB.  However, an infielder who provided this return in the early 1990s would routinely be in the top 10 at his position.
Best Score:  9.3 in 1995.  Peak Avg:  7.3

163 – Greg Vaughn, OF (41.7 / 39.4)
Few players benefited from the mid 1990’s power surge as much as Vaughn.  His home at bat per home run rate by year:
1989  - 22.6
1990  - 22.5
1991  - 20.1
1992  - 21.8
1993  - 19.0
1994  - 19.5
1995  - 23.1
1996  - 12.6
1997  - 20.1
1998  - 11.5
1999  - 12.2
2000  - 16.5
2001  - 20.2
2002  - 31.4

He went from a 25-30 HR hitter in the early 1990’s to a 40-50 HR hitter in the mid 1990’s when healthy.  He also had three years of 115+ RBI and stole double digit bases six times.
Best Score:  9.8 in 1998.  Peak Avg:  7.9

162 – Garrett Anderson (42.0 / 38.9)
How is this for consistency, Anderson’s best 4 years:

Still active, he has been fantasy worthy each of the 13 years of his career, though injuries have slowed him down.  He hasn’t reached 145 games four years running and at 36 years old, appears to have left his best years behind him.
Best Score:  9.7 in 2002.  Peak Avg:  7.8

161 – Mark Langston, SP (42.1 / 40.8)
A top-10 pitcher for three years, Langston eventually had a hard fall.  As rookie in 1984 the left hander won 17 games, with a 3.40 ERA and striking out 204.  He battle injuries throughout the next season and struggled with control in 1986, though he did strike out 245 batters in 239 innings pitched.   He was a Top-20 pitcher in five of the next seven years, and was at his best in 1991:  16 W, 1.19 WHIP, 3.20 ERA, 196 K.  Bone chips sidelined him for much the early part of 1994 and before his career ended in 1999, accumulated an incredible negative (-) 20.9 FBHOF points.
Best Score:  9.7 in 1991.  Peak Avg:  8.2

160 – Robin Ventura, 3B (42.2 / 39.8)
During his peak ranked between the 4^th and 7^th best third basemen in fantasy baseball.  Batting in the middle of the order, Ventura drove in 90 or more runners eight times and scored 85 or more runs six times.  He had good power, belting 30+ HR’s twice and 20+ nine times.  He didn’t steal and rarely batted above .290, limiting his overall scores.
Best Score:  8.9 in 1991.  Peak Avg:  8.0

159 – Tim Wallach, 3B (42.3 / 39.6)
Deserving of a future Chris Sabo Award, Wallach was all baseball.  Good on offense and great on defense, Wallach was one of the few bright spots for the Montreal Expos during 1980’s.  In our newly engrained sabermetric minds, Wallach’s stats don’t nearly stack up against the corner infielders of today, but back when on base percentage was ignored his counting stats looked solid:  908 R, 260 HR, 1125 RBI.  His best year was 1987:  .298 AVG, 89 R, 26 HR, 123 RBI, 9 SB.
Best Score:  9.9 in 1987.  Peak Avg:  7.9

158 – Raul Mondesi, OF (42.4 / 40.4)
While he never converted his amazing raw talent into superstardom, Mondesi had his moments.  In 1997 he went 30/30 with a .310 batting average, 95 R and 87 RBI.  Two years later he accomplished 30 HR and 30 stolen bases again, though his plate discipline disappeared and he batted just .253.  His two 9+ FBHOF point seasons are impressive, but he will forever be included in the “what could have been” group.
Best Score:  10.3 in 1997.  Peak Avg:  8.1

157 – Roy Oswalt, SP (42.7 / 41.9)
Barring a catastrophic injury, Oswalt will move well up in the rankings.  He’s just 30 years old and his 4-year peak average score is 9.1.  It is likely he will duplicate this number, if not exceed it, at least one more time in his career.  Other pitchers with an approximate  9.1 peak average include Mike Mussina, currently ranked 98^th, Tom Glavine (106^th), and Jack Morris (115^th).  Oswalt has four top-10 finishes under his belt, and was at his best in 2005:  20 W, 1.20 WHIP, 2.94 ERA, 184 K.  He lacks elite WHIP and strikeout numbers though, and only has an outside shot at induction into the FBHOF.
Best Score:  9.7 in 2005.  Peak Avg:  8.4

156 – Devon White, OF (42.8 / 39.6)
Remembered mainly for his defensive abilities, White was a good hitter as well, reaching 5.5+ FBHOF points six times in his career.  He had very good speed (a peak average of 36 steals per season) which accounts for the bulk of his scoring, but also averaged 18 home runs over his six best years.  When at the top of his game he batted leadoff or 2^nd, holding down his RBI totals.  His peak average was .260 with 103 R, 17 HR, 63 RBI, and 36 SB.
Best Score:  9.7 in 1991.  Peak Avg:  7.8

With another 15 players identified, we now begin to approach players with multiple 10 point seasons to their credit.  Up next a Boston favorite, a prototypical 80’s Cardinal, and an outfielder who didn’t need a glove.

        

Historical Rookies of the Year have been posted on the Frivolities page.

I hope most fantasy owners already know this, but please scan this list before you waste a meaningful draft pick on a rookie.  There have only been a handful of 10 FBHOF point seasons, especially for pitchers.

There seems to be one exception - rookie closers who succeed are common.

        

Yesterday, we reviewed the start of Fernando Valenzuela’s career and proclaimed it the best fantasy rookie season of all time.  We now turn our attention to the batters and focus on two rookies, one a 27-year old Japanese import and the other a more typical 23 year old from the Boston Red Sox minor league system.

In the technical sense of the term “Rookie” no batter in fantasy history had a better start to their career then Ichiro Suzuki.  In the fall of 2000 the Seattle Mariners purchased his contract from the Orix Blue Wave for approximately $13 Million, and subsequently signed the star outfielder to a major league contract worth approximately $4.7 M annually.  Yes, he had something akin to major league equivalent experience from his time in Japan and this no doubt aided his play, but Suzuki was a rookie in the eyes of MLB, and the FBHOF as well.  He was an unknown to fantasy owners which is what gambling on a rookie is all about – taking risks on players who’ve never been draft previously.

Suzuki’s excels at three fantasy categories – batting average, stolen bases, and runs scored.  This holds him back from enshrinement (for now) as the elite Hall of Famers excel at a minimum of 4 categories.  However, when everything falls correctly, Suzuki can be a top 10 batter.  This was the case in 2001:  .350 AVG, 127 R, 8 HR, 69 RBI, and 56 SB gave him 13.3 FBHOF points and a 7^th place ranking among batters.

One interesting note about his rookie season was how long it took him to show his speed.  The chart below depicts Suzuki’s 162 game averages for Stolen Bases, Runs Scored, and Batting Average.   Think of it is an in season projection of how his stats would like at the end of the season.

He batted .350 on the nose, and as you can see spent most of the season hovering around that mark.  After a week of play he was batting .364 and would eventually reach a low point of .324 in late July after a particularly painful 15 games stretch where he recorded 11 hits in 63 at bats (.175).  From this point forwarded he finished the year batting .392, securing both the MVP and Rookie of the Year Awards.

Through the end of June Suzuki was on pace to score 150 runs or so and eventually leveled off to a more than respectable pace, finishing 6^th overall.

As mentioned, his speed however, was a bit slow to materialize.  Through mid April Suzuki hadn’t stolen a single base and by the third week was just successful 1 of three times.  He then stole 14 of 16 during next 26 games and leveled off at a pace he maintained for the rest of the season.

At his outfield position, Suzuki finished behind 4^th, behind Sammy Sosa (64 HR, 160 RBI), Barry Bonds (73 HR, 137 RBI), and Luis Gonzalez (57 HR, 142 RBI).

Recognizing some may prefer players with no less experience, I’ll spend a bit of time on Nomar Garciaparra, whose 13.1 FBHOF points in 1997 ranks 2^nd best among rookies. 

Taken in the 1^st round of the 1994 draft, Garciaparra had a cup of coffee with the Red Sox in 1996, struggling in 87 at bats.  The following spring he was named opening day starters at shortstop at batted .328 / .366 / .534 out of the gate, smacking 5 HR and driving 16 over the course of the first month of the season.  After a tough 28 game stretch where he batted .224 with no power, Garciaparra closed out the season with a long stretch of greatness.  In his last 458 plate appearances he batted .317 with 82 R, 24 HR, 70 RBI, and 10 SB.

Garciaparra was named Rookie of the Year and finished din the Top-10 in voting for the MVP Award.  His career falls just short of FBHOF requirements though, amassing 56 peak points, but ultimately falling short due to his recent struggles.  Garciaparra changed positions to first base and hasn’t cracked the Top-200 in three of the past four years.

The Top-10 Fantasy Rookie Seasons – Batters

        

Razzball.com and FBHOF.com continue to recreate All Star teams of the fantasy era. The most incredible collection of baseball talent ever assembled is honored this week

        

Few rookies have impacted the game as much as Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981.  An import from the Mexican league, Valenzuela was purchased by the Dodgers in the summer of 1979 and quickly earned his way up the organizations minor leagues, earning a spot in the parent clubs bullpen for a September call-up the following year.  He appeared in 10 games without giving up a run, and most importantly, yielded just 8 hits and struck out 16 versus 6 walks in his 17 innings.  The groundwork for what would become known as ‘fernandomania’ had been laid.

In his MLB rookie (and FBHOF rookie) season of 1981 Valenzuela lived up to all of the considerable hype surrounding him, taking home not just the Rookie of the Year Award, but the Cy Young Award too.  He was masterful for most of the playoffs as well (40.7 IP, 29 H, 26 K) and helped his Dodgers bring home a World Series title by defeating the New York Yankees 4 games to 2.

Due to the 1981 strike, Valenzuela made just 25 starts, but 11 of them were Complete Games, and incredible 8 of these were shutouts.  In all, he led the league in Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, Starts, Complete Games, and Shutouts all at the young age of 20.

Fenrandomania was upon the world of baseball from the moment he made his first major league start on April 9^th.  It was a complete game shutout of the Houston Astros, the team the Dodgers lost to in 1 game playoff the previous year.  He yielded just 5 hits and two walks in a tough fought 2-0 victory.

His 2^nd start was even better:  a 4 hit, 10 K complete game win over San Francisco (7-1).  If this weren’t enough, his third game was another complete game shutout, this time a 4 hit, no walk, 10 K two to nothing victory over division rival San Diego Padres.  Through May 14, Valenzuela won all 8 of his starts going 72 IP giving up just 42 H and 17 BB, while striking out 68.  His ERA was 0.50 and opponents were hitting an incredible .172 off him; his OPS against was a miniscule .437.

Valenzuela was actually close to average the rest of the year, winning 5 of 12 starts with a 3.66 ERA (league average was 3.91).  It really didn’t matter though.  His legacy was cemented in stone after starting the season with an unheard of 5 shutouts in his first seven starts.  He could do no wrong and the fans adored him.  

He did finish the season with a 1.85 ERA over his last 9 starts, assuring him the well-deserved voting awards.  From a Fantasy standpoint his final line of 13 W, 1.05 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, and 180 K earned him 14.7 FBHOF points, or about 5% better than Dwight Gooden’s 1984 campaign.

Here are the Top-10 Fantasy Rookie Seasons for pitchers:

Note:  The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame defines a rookie in a different manner than major league baseball.  Any batter who accumulates 100 at bats, or any pitcher that appears in at least 20 innings, is considered to have a FBHOF eligible season.  This isn’t needed to define a player’s initial year in the majors, rather, it’s the cut-off point for point accumulation.  Since most players with so few at bats or innings pitched usually have negative FBHOF points, a cut-off was needed so as to not terribly impact the career score of the players.  It seemed unfair to have a September call up for an 18 year old be detrimental.  Please keep this in mind as we look through the rookie history of fantasy baseball in the months to come – some years may not match the rookie status you’ve grown accustomed to.

        

WhatIfSports and the FBHOF teamed up recently

Read all it about it, here.

        

I have put this off long enough. Over the course of the next few days (weeks?) the FBHOF will rank the Top 200 fantasy players of all time, providing summary level commentary for each.

To date all our discussions have been within a particular position.  For instance, we spent a lot of time showing why Albert Pujols is ranked higher than Jeff Bagwell, but we never quite answered the question as to who was better – Pujols or the highest ranked second basemen, Ryne Sandberg.

That ends now.  All positions, including closers and starting pitchers, are hereby ranked in one spot
 

185 – Aramis Ramirez, 3B (38.8 / 38.4)
Every player included in the Top-200 have had very good careers, so it is not mark against Ramirez to be ranked ‘only’ 185^th.  By my count, heading into this season 4,245 players are eligible for the FBHOF, making the Top 200 roughly the best 5% to ever grace the game.  Still, it was a bit of a surprise to me to see Ramirez ranked this low.  The case against him is simple though, despite nice home run totals (33 HR average during peak) and good RBI totals (106 average during peak), he never steals, has pedestrian run scored figures (84 peak average) and does not excel in batting average.
Best Score:  9.1 in 2004.  Peak Avg:  7.7

 
184 – Brian Downing, OF (38.8 / 36.3)
Had 5 solid and one very good season for fantasy purposes.  A 1980’s outfielder/designated hitter, Downing could be counted on for 90 R, 20+ HR, and 85 RBI during his peak.  In total, had 12 “fantasy worthy” seasons to his name.
Best Score:  9.5 in 1982.  Peak Avg:  7.3
 

183 – Javy Lopez, C (38.9 / 36.7)
Owns the 6^th best 3-year peak score among fantasy era catchers. Batted .328 with 89 R, 43 HR, and 109 RBI in 2003, giving him the 4^th best single season for a catcher ever.  From a career standpoint was well above average 3 times, about average 4 times, and close to replacement level 5 times.
Best Score:  11.6 in 2003.  Peak Avg:  7.4
 

182 – Roy Halladay, SP (39.2 / 39.2)
The career Blue Jay might be the poster boy for players who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy.  What is not to like about a pitcher who delivers a 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 ERA and when healthy wins 16-20 games each year?  His peak average strike out rate of 6.2 per nine innings does not compare with the great pitchers of the fantasy era.  It’s going the wrong way too:

Best Score:  12.4 in 2003.  Peak Avg:  7.8

 
181 – George Hendrick, OF (39.2 / 38.8)
Lost seven seasons to the 1970’s but had four good seasons to start the ‘80s.  At his best in the strike shortened 1981 when he batted .284 with 67 R, 18 HR, 61 RBI in two-thirds of a season.
Best Score:  11.1 in 1981.  Peak Avg:  7.8
 

180 – Troy Glaus, 3B (39.5 / 38.7)
A lite version of Adam Dunn on the other side of the diamond.  Glaus has power to spare hitting 35 or more home runs four times but low batting average in the .250’s has limited is overall value.  Had three seasons of 100+ R and 100+ RBI, and in his prime was good for an additional 10 SB per season.
Best Score:  11.6 in 2000.  Peak Avg:  7.8

179 – Bob Welch, SP (40.1 / 37.9)
An underrated starter for the championship Oakland A’s clubs of the late 1980’s and early 1990s.  Won 15 or more games six times and was worthy of fantasy consideration in 11 seasons.  A control pitcher, had two Top-10 finishes and won 27 games in 1990.  His five year peak average:  18 W, 1.20 WHIP, 3.05 ERA, 158 K
Best Score:  9.4 in 1987.  Peak Avg:  7.6
 

178 – Jesse Barfield, OF (40.1 / 38.2)
Had just 5 seasons of 150 games or more, but lasted in the big leagues a total of 12.  He was at his best, which was quite good, in 1985 and 1986 when he hit .289 with an average of 101 R, 34 HR, 96 RBI, and 15 SB.  He retained 20 HR power the rest of his career, but his batting average and speed plummeted, leaving fantasy owners with a mediocre outfielder in his peak 3-5 years.
Best Score:  12.8 in 1986.  Peak Avg:  7.7

177 – Miguel Cabrera, OF (40.3 / 40.3)
At age 25, Cabrera is on track for a Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame career.  Eliminating his 2003 rookie season for a moment, Cabrera has averaged 10.6 FBHOF points per season which would place him roughly 65^th on the all time list.  Pedro Guerrero, Darryl Strawberry, and David Ortiz are similar players.  Over last three years has hit .327 with 309 R, 93 HR, and 349 RBI.
Best Score:  12.4 in 2005.  Peak Avg:  8.1
 

176 – Jason Kendall, C (40.6 / 38.3)
The slap hitting .240 hitter we’re accustomed to today was quite a catcher in his prime, averaging 11.5 Position FBHOF points during his 5 year peak, placing him as the 7^th best catcher of the fantasy era.  In the late 1990’s and early 2000’s Kendall batted .300 in five of seven years, had an on base percentage of .390 or better in six of seven years, and even slugged .470 or better in three consecutive seasons (1998-2000).  His career fantasy year came in 1998:  .327 AVG, 95 R, 12 HR, 75 RBI, 26 SB.  Kendall was ranked in the Top-5 for catchers seven times.
Best Score:  10.3 in 2000.  Peak Avg:  7.7
 

175 – David Justice, OF (40.7 / 38.8)
Consistently good, but never great, Justice was normally ranked in the upper half of the outfield ranks, while cracking the Top-25 for batters just once.  He twice hit 40 HR and drove in over 115 runners.  Considered worthy of a roster spot at the end of 10 seasons (and every season he played in at least 120 games).
Best Score:  9.1 in 2005.  Peak Avg:  7.8

174 – Jimmy Key, SP (41.0 / 38.3)
Ranks 144^th in major league history with 186 wins, wining at least 12 games in 12 different seasons.  A finesse pitcher, Key recorded WHIP’s of 1.25 or better eight times and ERA’s lower than 3.50 seven times.  Finished 1987 as the #2 ranked pitcher and in 1993 finished 6^th.  In ’87 won 17 games with a 1.06 WHIP, 2.76 ERA, and 161 K’s in 261 IP.
Best Score:  12.7 in 1987.  Peak Avg:  7.7
 

173 – Doug Drabek, SP (41.0 / 39.4)
Cut from the same mold as Key above, Drabek was a control pitcher with a slightly longer peak the Key, though Key lasted longer and when at their best he maintained a significant edge.  Their FBHOF scores ranked highest to lowest:
           Key    Drabek
Peak 1    12.7     9.8
Peak 2     9.7     9.4
Peak 3     6.7     8.9
Peak 4     5.5     6.2
Peak 5     3.6     5.2
Peak 6     3.6     4.5
Peak 7     3.1     2.4
Peak 8     2.4     2.3
Peak 9     2.0     0.7
Peak 10    0.6     (-)
Peak 11    0.4     (-)
Peak 12    0.2     (-)
Best Score:  9.8 in 1987.  Peak Avg:  7.9
 

172 – Terry Pendleton, 3B (41.0 / 39.5)
Best known for ‘costing’ Barry Bonds a record 8^th MVP award when the voters chose him 1991.  Pendleton was a fine third basemen for two years in the early 1990’s, finishing seasons ranked 2^nd and 3^rd at the position.  In these two years he batted .315 with an average of 96 R, 22 HR, 96 RBI, and 8 SB.  He was marginally above average for several other years, but never dominated in any other seasons.
Best Score:  11.4 in 1987.  Peak Avg:  7.9
 

171 - Wally Joyner, 1B (41.2 / 38.9)
Some players, like Joyner, are better fantasy contributors than baseball contributors.  He started his career off as a rookie all-star, the first time this had occurred since 1970.  24 years old at the time he batted .290 with 82 R, 22 HR, and 100 RBI.  He was even better the following season reaching 100 R, 34 HR, and 117 RBI but was never the same afterward as injuries sapped his power.  He did hang on to have four more seasons of 80+ RBI and batted .280 or better 11 times in his career.  Has the unenviable recognition of being hit by a fan-thrown hunting knife at Yankee stadium during the 1986 season.
 

Next up a Cub favorite, a should be Baseball Hall of Famer, and a man once trade for Randy Johnson.

        

Today, Joe Sheehan wrote an article (subscription only, sorry) about who would end up the better player – Derek Jeter or Jose Reyes.  For sake of full disclosure, I am not a huge fan of Joe, mostly due to his writing style which comes across as a bit pompous, and I often have the impression he is talking down to his readers.  (As an aside, he once said that A-Rod, and I believe it was April, was hitting too many home runs and wasn’t doubling enough, and this was a sign of an impending decline in results).

Anyway, that's neither here nor there.  Today he proposed to use WARP (Wins Above Replacement) as the metric to define the two careers, year by year according to their ages.  I am pro-sabermetric.  I get it, I really do.  But I am not their yet with defensive metrics, and while I agree that Jeter is not a gold glove winner, nor likely even above average, I can't sign up for a single defensive metric accounting for all the intricacies of defensive statistics and metrics.

Summarizing Joe's column in a table:

Wow, incredible, Reyes has been better!.

My issue is two fold

1)      He assumes WARP 100% accurately reflects the difference between them in defense

2)      He gives Reyes a 4.6 to 0.1 Edge for their age 20 to 21 seasons.

I’ve talked about #1, and #2 is the biggest issue that the Sabermetric community has to overcome before being welcomed by the mainstream.  Jeter is currently in his 14^th year in the majors, and barring injury, will likely play another 5 years, and perhaps longer, giving him somewhere around 20 years of service.  Reyes started even earlier and there is no reason to believe his career will be cut short.

Given 20 years of data to look at, does Reyes 274 AB in 2003 and 220 AB in 2004 really need to enter the discussion?  Is anyone going to look at these seasons and include them as the basis of an argument, for instance, for Reyes’ Hall of Fame worthiness?  No, never.  Yet, Sheehan gives Reyes a full 4 win edge, 4 wins!

The following chart took 37 seconds to compile:

Jeter wallops Reyes.  OPS+ is of course extremely accurate, maybe not as accurate as some of the most sophisticated (and proprietary) saber-stats out there, but hey, it took 37 seconds to compile.

But it omits the value of stolen bases.  Lets turn to our old friend, and still extremely reliable, Runs Created, that encompasses all the critical statistics (hits, walks, steals, home runs, steals, caught stealing, GIDP, HBP, and even some base running measures).

Again, it really not close.  Jeter has clearly been the more impressive hitter through age 25. If I were Sheehan, my conclusion would have read something like this:

It’s clear that for the first four years of their respective careers Jeter has been the better hitter, and by a fairly wide margin.  The question is how much Jeter’s perceived shortcomings on defense closes this gap, and while it will likely result in a significant swing, we can safely assume Jeter has been the more valuable of the two. 

At least for now.