Few predicted the chaotic season that’s upon us.  Heading into the All Star break many of the household names, fantasy studs if you will, are not among the scoring leaders so far this year.  In the American League Ichiro Suzuki, Magglio Ordonez, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero, and Curtis Granderson are all disappointments to one extent or another.  In the National League, Prince Fielder, Carlos Lee, Miguel Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright were all likely drafted higher than the return their statistics are currently providing.

Starting pitching has been even more surprising.  CC Sabathia, John Lackey, Justin Verlander – out.  Jake Peavy, Aaron Harang, John Smoltz and even Johan Santana are not top performers roughly 47% into the season.  Replacing them are Edinson Volquez, Ryan Dempster, Joe Saunders, and Ervin Santana. 

For those of us who loved our pre-season draft yet still find our teams mired deep in the league standings, this could be great news, and a positive sign for the potential at least of a 2^nd half resurgence.  Is Carlos Quentin really one of the top AL outfielders?  Is Dempster, of all people, finally realizing his potential?  Most of these early season wonders have to come back down to earth don’t they? 

Maybe not.  Baseball has been in the midst of a sort of “changing of the guard” over the past few years. Phase II of the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame will be to determine the Fantasy All Stars for each season.  In working through the raw data during the past weeks, an incredible trend emerged the deeper I dug.  Below is the number of Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famers elected to each All-Star team by year:

Often lost in the general steroid discussion is that the 1990’s through the early double-aughts was one of the rare Golden Age’s of baseball.  All time greats blessed the field each and every day – Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Sammy Sosa.  Plus and Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Mariano Rivera, and Curt Schilling.  These are all incredible players who leave legacies as some of the best to grace the game.

Very few are left; in 2007 just two FBHOF’ers made the all star team, down from an average of 13 per season between 1997 and 2001.  Even the 1980s routinely saw seven to 10 FBHOF’ers each year.

Change is good though, and perhaps great.  Baseball may be at it’s finest this very moment thanks to the recent youth movement - Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun are exciting young players that people want to watch.  Wright, Peavy, and Rollins may not have had career first halves but are all short of 30 years old and does anyone doubt their staying power?  Even younger are Joba Chamberlain, Tim Lincecum, Adrian Gonzalez, and Cole Hamels.  Change is good, change is exciting, and it is a wonderful time to be a baseball fan – between Golden Ages, and not at the end of one.

2008 All Stars

The FBHOF uses a unique scoring methodology that takes into consideration the quality of the league and position, as well as the minimum values that can be expected in a given year.  Using these scores, here are the 2008 All Stars squads using the standard 14 batter, 9 pitcher rosters. 

(Please note the usual positional adjustment was not made since we aren’t comparing across positions.)

Catchers

The two best fantasy catchers in baseball are in the National League.  Brian McCann (.306, 14 HR, 35 R, 44 RBI) and Russell Martin (.315, 35 R, 6 SBs) get the nod over the surprising Bengie Molina (.308, 48 RBI) and slumping Geovany Soto (.274, 12 HR, 43 RBI)

In the American League Joe Mauer (.331, 46 R) is head and shoulders above every other catcher, if only because Jorge Posada has been injured.  AJ Pierzynski (.299, 34 R) is the second choice besting Gerald Laird who is doing well, but splitting time behind the plate in Texas. 

First Base

The top four first basemen are all in the NL.  As of June 24, Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Derek Lee, and Albert Pujols each scored higher than Justin Morneau, the AL’s representative. 

Berkman (.354, 66 R, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 12 SBs) has been the best player in fantasy baseball by a wide margin.  Among his peers, he leads in Batting Average, Runs, and Stolen Bases while just 1 HR and 5 RBI off the pace for Major League first basemen.
 
Morneau and Kevin Youkilis are virtually dead even in terms of underlying FBHOF points, but in the Twins’ first basemen has 12 more RBI and gets the vote for the AL.

Second Base

Three second basemen have separated themselves over all competition –

Ian Kinsler - .305 AVG, 64 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 19 SB
Chase Utley - .288 AVG, 56 R, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 6 SB
Dan Uggla   - .294 AVG, 57 R, 23 HR, 57 RBI, 4 SB

Kinsler and Utley will represent their leagues though Uggla fans shouldn’t fret as there will be a spot for him before we’re done.  I can’t recall a time where the middle infield positions have been as formidable.

Third Base

For the first time in a long time, Alex Rodriguez isn’t having the best fantasy season for a third bagger.  That honor goes to Chipper Jones and his quest for a .400 season.  There is no longer a chance of this (if there ever was) but Jones is still putting up the best set of statistics - .393, 48 R, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB.

Rodriguez, despite some injuries, isn’t shut out of the All Star festivities though, and is in for the American League.  A-Rod is ranked 7^th at the hot corner, meaning he is the lone AL third basemen in to the Top 7.

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are once again near the top of their respective games, and I have the Marlin rated a bit higher as his lead in HR (16 to 8) and R (64 to 55) more than offset Reyes lead in stolen bases (26 to 19).

The AL squad is again undermanned having to rely on Michael Young to combat Reyes/Ramirez.  Ahead of Young in scoring is also the NL’s Miguel Tejada and (gulp) Christian Guzman. 

The difference between the two representatives can be summed up as follows – Young is having a good year for a shortstop, Ramirez is simply having a good year.

Outfield

Josh Hamilton (.312, 50 R, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 2 SBs) is putting up the second best numbers in fantasy baseball, ahead of Chipper Jones but behind Berkman.  He’s joined by Carlos Quentin, JD Drew, Grady Sizemore, and Johnny Damon to round out the AL.

Ichiro Suzuki has just 19 RBI which is holding is scoring down; while Jose Guillen and Manny Ramirez aren’t showing enough power to overcome Damon’s large lead in batting average and stolen bases.

Over in the NL Nate McLouth and Ryan Ludwick lead in the “Huh?!” votes, but are nonetheless well deserved in their selections.  McLouth is one of just 3 outfielders to have 50 or more HR and RBI at this point.  Since May 8 Ryan Braun is batting .303 with 15 HR and 34 RBI and gets the #2 ranking in the NL outfield.  Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay outpace Carlos Lee, who is showing power but little else.

Corner Infield and Middle Infield

Depth has been a problem for the AL.  Brian Roberts, the 8^th best MLB second basemen and Joe Crede, MLB’s 8^th best third basemen have to contend against Dan Uggla (3^rd best at second) and Aramis Ramirez (2^nd best at third).  It’s a formidable difference of 32 R, 36 RBI, and 17 SB.

Utility

The AL’s Milton Bradley has been a sweet surprise for Texas batting .332, 47 R, 15 HR, 48 RBI, and 4 SB. Adrian Gonzalez has been even better though, hitting 21 HR’s and leading the NL in RBI.

The NL has clearly emerged as the league with the most fantasy talent on offense.  Only in the first outfield position, with Hamilton besting McLouth, do they come up short when compared to the AL.  In contrast, the NL scores better in 9 positions and is roughly equal in three.

Starting Pitcher

Twelve pitchers are elected to the All Star team, six from each league.  Four of the Top-6 are NL pitchers.  Even when considering it is easier for a NL pitcher to accumulate points because they face pitchers at least three times a game, it’s not enough to explain away the difference in the quality of statistics.

Edinson Volquez (10 W, 1.71 ERA, 110 K) is the best fantasy pitcher on the planet right now and leads the way with 11.6 points.  He is markedly better than Roy Halladay this year, the AL’s #1 starter.  For comparison purposes, I called it a dead heat between #’2’s Ben Sheets and Cliff Lee, but in reality, Sheets is ranked 2^nd to Lee’s 5^th and is also having a better season.

The rest of the starting slots belong to the NL.  Brandon Webb, Danny Haren, Ryan Dempster, and Cole Hamels combine for 35 W and 355 K’s.  In the AL Ervin Santana, Shawn Marcum, Joe Saunders, and Josh Becket counter with 32 W and 323 K’s.

Closers

Here at least, the AL holds their own.  Three closers stand out above all others – Mariano Rivera (AL), Kerry Wood (NL), and Jonathan Papelbon (AL).  In addition, the AL’s Francisco Rodriguez leads the majors in saves.  Jon Rauch and Brad Lidge round out the Senior Circuit’s team, and each are in the midst superb seasons themselves.

With better scores in 5 of the 9 pitching positions, the NL is enjoying a route.  Position by position they are the superior squad, winning 14 roster slots to the AL’s 2.  Further, summarizing the statistics for each scoring category, the NL leads the AL 7-3. 

The AL is now 109-76 vs. the NL in interleague play, so in this case, fantasy doesn’t follow reality.